The Fragmentation of Moderate Democratic Vote

With almost all the precincts reporting in, 5 Democratic candidates divided all the state delegates between them — Pete Buttigieg (26%), Bernie Sanders (26%), Elizabeth Warren (18%), Joe Biden (16%) and Amy Klobuchar (12%) in the Iowa Democratic Caucus. I would order these candidates based on their policy and ideological positions, from left to right, like this — Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden. Actually, in terms of their centrist credentials, it is hard to differentiate Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden who took a combined 54%, a clear majority.

Some moderate voters clearly sensed this possible fragmentation and the Biden and Klobuchar supporters among them might have supported Buttigieg at the end after seeing the last minute surge of his campaign. And that might have put him slightly over Sanders denying the latter a clear victory which some polls predicted.

Practically Buttigieg and Sanders are tied at the top. Consecutive victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would have given Sanders an aura of front runner and that won’t happen now. Even if he would be victorious in New Hampshire the chances of him winning South Carolina is wafer thin.

The second phase of Democratic primary would begin with no clear front runner with Biden’s lead in the national polls melting away. But his possible victory in South Carolina would force him to stay in the fray to plod along with others in the vast landscape of Democratic primary with Michael Bloomberg also joining these top 5 candidates as the 4th candidate dividing the centrist votes even further.

Sanders camp must be very happy with such a scenario. With about a quarter of the Democratic primary voters fanatically behind him he might notch up victories down the road in a fragmented field like it is now though that might not help to pick up many delegates. But the victories would make him the front runner. That’s what exactly happened during a crowded Republican primary last time. Trump had a loud, fanatic support base that always punched above its weight. A fragmented, establishment Republican base with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz trying out their luck till the last of the primaries handed out victories and eventual nomination to Trump.

To retain the majority of moderate voice within Democratic Party some of these moderate candidates should drop off early so the votes would consolidate behind one or two moderate candidates.

Elizabeth Warren should stay in the competition. She might be the only candidate in the fray who might become a compromise candidate for some left and some centrist voters.

Pete Buttigieg should stay too. He has proved that he can run an effective campaign and can take on rivals in both Democratic and Republican parties. And he represents future too. There seems to be a trend to elect young leaders around the world by liberals and he is well positioned to capitalize on that.

For the benefit of their beloved party and the nation both Biden and Klobuchar should drop off early. As a consolation how about a Buttigieg-Klobuchar or a Buttigieg-Warren ticket? The latter option could be flipped also based on who would notch up more delegates. A bold gay-woman ticket would enrage right wingers so much that it would be fun to watch their crazy reactions.

I still haven’t factored in Bloomberg into the above equations. Would his millions buy him any support in the primaries? You never know. He might be there just to taunt Trump :-)

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